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The Ladder of Inference: How Our Assumptions Shape Reality

Writer's picture: Pat (PK) KearneyPat (PK) Kearney

Updated: 2 days ago

Your brain is wired for speed. It fills in gaps, makes assumptions, and jumps to conclusions—sometimes without you even noticing. When a team member misses a deadline, you might instantly think, "They're unreliable." When a client takes days to respond to your email, you might conclude, "They're not interested." These split-second judgments feel natural and we are all guilty of them—but are they accurate? The Ladder of Inference reveals how these mental leaps shape our decisions, relationships, and leadership effectiveness. 


What Is the Ladder of Inference?

Developed by Chris Argyris and popularized by Peter Senge, the Ladder of Inference illuminates the lightning-fast process our minds use to transform raw information into decisions and actions. Think of it as your brain's built-in story-making engine.


Here's how it works:

  1. Observable Data: The raw facts

    • What you actually see, hear, or touch

    • Just the facts, no interpretation

  2. Selected Data: Your mental highlight reel

    • Which details catch your attention

    • What you choose to focus on

  3. Interpretation: Your personal meaning-making

    • How you make sense of what you noticed

    • The story you start telling yourself

  4. Assumptions: Your unconscious beliefs

    • What you take for granted

    • The gaps your brain fills in

  5. Conclusions: Your judgments

    • What you decide is true

    • The meaning you've created

  6. Beliefs: Your reinforced worldview

    • How this situation shapes your thinking

    • What you now hold as "truth"

  7. Actions: Your responses

    • What you decide to do

    • How you change your behavior






When Your Ladder Leads to the Wrong Place


Your brain climbs this ladder lightning-fast, often without you noticing. Let's see it in action:


The Situation:

  • Observable Data: Colleague checks phone multiple times during a meeting

  • Selected Data: They're looking down, not participating

  • Interpretation: They're not paying attention

  • Assumption: They don't care about this project, they don’t care about me

  • Conclusion: They're not a team player, they don’t like me

  • Belief: They can't be trusted with important work

  • Action: You exclude them from future projects


But what if they were checking critical project updates? Or responding to a family emergency? One quick climb up the wrong ladder can damage relationships and derail collaboration.


Three Tools to Stay Grounded

Before you sprint up that ladder, try these reality checks:

  1. Get Real with the Data (The data I’m observing ….)

    • What did you actually see or hear?

    • Can you describe it without interpretation?

    • What might you be missing?

  2. Check Your Emotions (The feeling that elicits in me ….)

    • What feelings came up?

    • How might they be coloring your view?

    • What past experiences are influencing you?

  3. Question Your Story (The story I’m telling myself …)

    • What assumptions are you making?

    • What other explanations could fit?

    • What would you need to verify your interpretation?


Making It Work for You

The goal isn't to stop using the Ladder of Inference—that's impossible and unhelpful. Instead, aim to:

  • Notice when you're climbing

  • Question your assumptions

  • Stay curious longer

  • Consider other perspectives


Remember: The stories we tell ourselves shape our reality. 


By understanding how you climb the Ladder of Inference, you can make more conscious choices about your interpretations, judgments, and actions. When we step back and challenge our assumptions, we open the door to clearer thinking, better relationships, and more effective decision-making. Instead of climbing the Ladder unconsciously, let’s choose to navigate the stories we tell ourselves with awareness and intention.

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